🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was made public, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the event. Sudden Shift in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion surged in the period preceding former President Trump declared on the weekend that the president had been apprehended. A particular user, which became a member recently and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Trading information shows that users put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet these probabilities had increased to over 10% by late Friday night and surged in the morning of the next day, indicating a sudden change in betting activity immediately prior to the official statement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," stated an industry expert. A small number of other individuals also made significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation put forward on the start of the week aims to prohibit government employees from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports to political events. The industry were examined under the Biden administration. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting arena. An official representative for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."