Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
