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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd