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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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